Being shot down from behind
Cleggmania seems to have reinforced a trend that has gained some considerable momentum of late – the wheels of the Tory campaign are slowly but surely falling off. That doesn’t just mean the Conservative campaign is turning into a car crash but it quite literally means David Cameron would have been taken from behind should he not be the Prime Minister on May 7th.
That’s not just my opinion but it’s also the opinion of prominent Conservative Lobbyist and Chairman of PR firm Bell Pottinger , Peter Bingle. His contemptuous opinion of his own sides campaign is obvious – “This is the most inept Tory campaign in living memory. I know there have been some dud campaigns in the past. William Hague’s was pretty awful but in a way it didn’t really matter. Nobody believed he was going to win the election… There doesn’t appear to be any strategy. The ‘big society’ idea has come and now disappeared… The decision to agree to the televised debates may well have cost the Tory Party the election. It has elevated Nick Clegg from nowhere to equal footing with the PM and David Cameron. Whichever adviser or guru advised David Cameron to take part made a terrible mistake.”
Terrible, but it’s made the election a lot more interesting. But that surely glosses over a lacklustre Conservative campaign? It’s been lazy to say the least – not lazy with throwing cash around. I’ve not seen a campaign that seems almost exclusively to be figure headed by one man. How often do you see anyone apart from David Cameron feature on the campaign trail? Not often. Is that because there isn’t anyone else of note? True Cameron is supposed to the Tories strongest card, but variation is the spice of life. The likes of Ken Clarke command real respect and Boris Johnson can certainly hold a crowd. Cameron’s ‘emergency broadcast’ yesterday appeared to be nothing else other than desperate. He was supposed to air an attack on Labour, but instead chose to change that tact of his message – he’s clearly rattled by Cleggmania.
Traditionally Lib Dems have voted tactically in order to keep their constituencies Tory free zones. That effect can’t be readily predicted this time – if people decide to stop voting tactically or it gets watered down then it could really hurt Labour, especially in the 100 or so Lab/Con marginal seats. Labour need to turn Cleggmania into pro-Labour tactical votes. Electoral reform has already been dangled in front of the Liberal Democrats, what else will Gordon droop in front of Nick?
Amongst other demographic dynamics that Cleggmania offers up is that of young voters, particularly first time voters whose intentions are less calculable. There’s a growing feeling that the young will get behind Clegg – and ignore Cameron’s argument that a vote for Clegg is a vote for Labour. The young have two things to gain by voting for Clegg – it points the way toward a hung parliament and blows away the two party consensus. In other words it hurts the politicians and bankers – both wanted dead or alive!
lol